10/05/2023

Source: OECD

The World Economic Outlook is an IMF survey published usually twice a year. It presents the analyses of the economists of the IMF staff on the evolution of the world economy in the short and medium term.

World economic outlook

The global economic prospects for 2023 are deteriorating and subject to strong risks. Growth is being held back by rising rates in the face of inflation, the recent financial deterioration, the war in Ukraine and the fragmentation of the world economy amid geopolitical tensions. If, at the outset, the hypothesis adopted revolved around financial tensions, global growth would be the weakest recorded since 2001, excluding the crises of 2008 and 2020.

Anticipation of a fall in global growth in 2023 followed by a slow recovery

In the central scenario of the World Economic Outlook, the IMF expects global economic growth to decline to 2.8% in 2023, then 3.0% in 2024, after 3.4% in 2022. This slowdown would be particularly marked in advanced countries (1.3% in 2023 and 1.4% in 2024, after 2.7% in 2022), especially in Europe. GDP would decline in Germany and the United Kingdom (-0.1 and -0.3% respectively in 2023) and would grow slightly in France and Italy (0.7%).

These non-reassuring prospects are explained by the monetary tightening necessary to fight inflation, the recent deterioration in financial conditions, the continuation of the war in Ukraine and the increasing fragmentation of the world economy for geopolitical reasons in particular.

Global inflation would fall to 7% in 2023 under the effect of lower commodity prices, but its underlying component (excluding food and energy) would decrease more slowly. In total, inflation would not reach its target until 2025 in most countries. It could also prove to be more persistent than expected in the central scenario.

According to the reference scenario, the recent financial tensions would be contained, but it is also plausible that they will increase. In this case, global growth would be even lower, both globally (2.5% in 2023, the lowest rate for two decades excluding the 2008 crisis and the Covid crisis) and in advanced countries (less than 1%).